Data courtesy of OneKey MLS, NJMLS. All data deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Feeling overwhelmed by the barrage of national headlines about a ‘crashing’ housing market? Here’s why those headlines don’t tell the whole story – especially for Hudson Valley buyers and sellers.

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The Hudson Valley Difference

Hudson Valley’s Q1 2025 Single-Family Real Estate Market

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Numbers for the first quarter of 2025 are being crunched, and the results for our Hudson Valley real estate market are in. While national headlines attempt to target the fear-prone, your Hudson Valley real estate story writes itself.

If you’re a buyer or seller on the fence about “if now is the time”, you’re likely consulting go-to resources, if you think of them as such, for advice on what you should do. And if you pull up an article on one presumably trustworthy source, it will tell you the top 0.01% of the real estate deals are falling apart – nationwide! So if you, dear buyer or seller, are still on the fence about getting into this wild west of a real estate market – beware! Because 8-figure deals are falling apart coast to coast! And no matter where you live or what price range you’re in, this news pertains to you!

If you can relate to that, then that means one of two things: One – you actually are a buyer or seller qualified to buy or have a property to sell in the top 0.01% of the real estate market, or, two – the fear-mongering has gotten the best of you and I’m here to reassure you, your 6- to 7-figure sale and/or purchase is going to see just as competitive a market as we’ve seen in the past few years. And depending on your price range, maybe even more so.

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The Hudson Valley Difference

Yes, the Hudson Valley is a suburb of Manhattan which is not exempt from the effects of stock markets and world economics. What it is less prone to however, is the intense whiplash of dealings within the top 0.01% of anything that headlines use for clickbait.

While national headlines focus on high-end, ultra-luxury properties and their struggles, the Hudson Valley market is driven by a different set of factors. Very few pockets of the Hudson Valley (here defined as Westchester, its bordering counties in NY, as well as Bergen County/NJ) are in the top 0.01% of national real estate. Even the top 10% of the nation’s richest aren’t your classic Hudson Valley buyer – they would be an exception, not the standard. Instead of the dramatic swings experienced by high-net-worth buyers in those headline-grabbing deals, the Hudson Valley market demonstrates a more grounded and sustainable pace. Our typical buyer and seller probably have a portion of their assets tied up in the stock market, but that same buyer and/or seller likely has an asset of equal or greater value that’s not tied up.

That asset would be their home. And that’s one asset that keeps out-performing the rest. Our Hudson Valley market is influenced by factors like local job growth, the appeal of a more relaxed lifestyle, and the limited availability of land (a huge differentiator when compared to markets in the Midwest and Southeast). To look at how local real estate markets are performing, we look at two major factors: absorption rate and close-to-original list price.

What’s an absorption rate? In real estate, the absorption rate is a measurement used to evaluate the rate at which homes are sold in a specific market during a specific time period. It essentially measures how quickly the current inventory of homes is being “absorbed” by buyers. A “seller’s market” is considered to be such when the absorption rate is above 20%. We have a “buyer’s market” when the absorption rate falls below 15%, and are in a “neutral market” when the absorption rate is between 15% and 20%. For the below calculations, we took the total number of sales within the quarter v. how many homes were on the market at the end of the quarter.

Hudson Valley’s Q1 2025 Single-Family Real Estate Market

For information on a specific town, zip code, or price range, send us an email.

Rockland County, New York

Orange County, New York

Bergen County, New Jersey

Westchester County, New York

The Hudson Valley real estate market has not experienced a buyer’s market in years and, unlike national predictions, is not expected to “crash”. Instead, a slowdown or “normalization” is anticipated, representing more of a plateau than a decrease—a change many buyers have long desired. The local market’s basic economics, characterized by insufficient inventory to meet buyer demand, differs significantly from the conditions of the 2008 recession. The region would need to experience an extreme economic downturn to see a similar collapse.

Your personal interests, desires, and finances should be your driving force behind your move – not national headlines. Talk with your realtor (if you don’t have one – we got you) about your goals for your move and whether or not this is the market to capitalize on.

For a deeper look into county numbers for the first quarter, check out our post with stats from Joseph Rand, Howard Hanna | Rand Realty’s Chief Creative Officer here, or get in touch with our team directly by filling out the contact form below.